Introduction
The most significant US-Russia negotiations since 2022 are happening in Saudi Arabia, yet Ukraine is absent from the table. As former US President Donald Trump pushes for a swift resolution to the war, Russia sees an opportunity to normalize relations and restore business ties with the United States. Meanwhile, Europe scrambles to respond, hosting an emergency summit in Paris to discuss security and military support for Ukraine. The divide between Trump’s approach and Europe’s reaction is reshaping global diplomacy at a rapid pace.
The Saudi Summit: A Major Shift in US Foreign Policy
Tuesday’s high-level talks in Riyadh brought together senior American and Russian officials for the first time since the 2022 invasion.
Seated at the Diriyah Palace in Riyadh were:
- US delegation: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
- Russian delegation: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Policy Adviser Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
- Saudi officials: Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and National Security Adviser Musaed al-Aiban joined as mediators.
Marco Rubio, second left, Sergei Lavrov, right, and envoys in Riyadh, on Feb. 18, Source: Bloomberg
Key Discussions:
- Ending the Ukraine war – Trump’s administration is eager to move toward a settlement with Putin.
- Rebuilding economic ties – Russia wants US companies to return, emphasizing that they lost $300 billion by leaving.
- Energy cooperation – The prospect of American oil firms resuming business in Russia was raised.
- Lifting sanctions – Russian officials hope a peace deal could lead to an end to Biden-era sanctions.
Trump’s surprise diplomatic pivot—negotiating with Putin without Ukraine’s presence—has shocked European leaders and Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the talks, warning, “We cannot recognize any agreements made about us without us.”
Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Source: The New York Times
Europe’s Response: The Paris Summit
With Europe largely sidelined in the Saudi negotiations, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted an emergency mini-summit in Paris on Monday to discuss Ukraine and defense spending.
Attendees included:
- French President Emmanuel Macron
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk
Emmanuel Macron, center, hosts leaders in Paris, Source: Bloomberg
Key Outcomes:
- Divisions in European defense strategy:
- The UK is open to deploying peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
- Poland refuses to send troops, prioritizing its own security.
- Increased military aid: European leaders agreed that if the US steps back, they must take on greater responsibility.
- Macron’s call for stronger security guarantees: He reaffirmed that any peace deal must be in Ukraine’s favor and should ensure Russia ceases aggression permanently.
JD Vance during the Munich Security Conference, Source: Bloomberg
Geopolitical and Economic Implications
The Riyadh and Paris summits highlight a geopolitical shift that could reshape alliances.
1. Energy and Trade:
- If Trump lifts sanctions, US oil giants like ExxonMobil may return to Russia.
- Russia could regain access to Western financial systems, boosting its struggling economy.
2. Defense and Security:
- If the US reduces its support for Ukraine, Europe may have to increase military spending significantly.
- NATO allies are divided over military commitments, with some pushing for peace and others preparing for a long-term standoff with Russia.
3. The Middle East’s Rising Influence:
- Saudi Arabia is emerging as a global mediator, using its ties with both Russia and the US.
- The Gulf states did not fully back Ukraine at the 2023 Swiss peace summit, and their neutral stance strengthens their diplomatic role.
Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi on Monday, Source: The New York Times
What’s Next? A Possible Trump-Putin Summit?
With momentum building after Riyadh, a Trump-Putin summit could take place as early as next week. If such a meeting happens, it would mark a major shift in global diplomacy.
What’s at stake?
- For Ukraine: Will Trump pressure Kyiv into accepting territorial losses in exchange for peace?
- For Europe: Can the EU step up as the US repositions itself?
- For Russia: Will Moscow succeed in ending its diplomatic isolation?
- For the Global Economy: Will sanctions ease, allowing Western companies to return to Russia?
With the world watching, the future of Ukraine and US-Russia relations is being decided without Ukraine in the room.
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